Tyler Allgeier Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Tyler Allgeier

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Allgeier

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Receptions

New York Jets vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Allgeier Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Falcons are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run 66.6 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-most among all teams this week.
The Falcons have called the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 61.5 plays per game.
The Falcons offensive line grades out as the 9th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all passing attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Falcons to be the least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 49.8% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.0 pass attempts per game against the New York Jets defense this year: 5th-fewest in football.
Tyler Allgeier has gone out for fewer passes this year (20.2% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last year (39.1%).
Tyler Allgeier's possession skills have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 93.8% to 71.3%.
As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, New York's LB corps has been great this year, ranking as the best in the league.

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