Tyler Allgeier Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Tyler Allgeier

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Allgeier

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Receptions

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Allgeier Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-195/+150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -190 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -195.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by the projection model to have 137.0 total plays called: the highest number out of all the games this week.
The Falcons have run the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a massive 61.9 plays per game.
The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Falcons to pass on 55.1% of their chances: the 11th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Tyler Allgeier's 21.0% Route Participation Rate this year shows a material reduction in his pass game utilization over last year's 39.1% rate.
Tyler Allgeier's 71.8% Adjusted Completion Rate this season signifies a significant regression in his pass-catching ability over last season's 93.7% rate.
This year, the formidable Saints defense has surrendered a mere 74.6% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing RBs: the 3rd-smallest rate in the NFL.
The Saints defensive tackles grade out as the 7th-best unit in the NFL this year in regard to rushing the passer.

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