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Tyler Allgeier

Tyler Allgeier Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Atlanta Falcons vs Washington Commanders

Tyler Allgeier Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.

Tyler Allgeier rates as one of the best possession receivers in football when it comes to RBs, catching an exceptional 93.8% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, ranking in the 76th percentile.

Since the start of last season, the deficient Washington Commanders defense has conceded the 3rd-most yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing RBs: a staggering 7.37 YAC.

The Commanders safeties rank as the worst safety corps in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Falcons to pass on 54.4% of their opportunities: the 7th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.

The Falcons offense has played at the 9th-most sluggish pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 29.43 seconds per play.

Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Commanders, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 30.6 per game) since the start of last season.

With a high 14.5% Route Participation Rate (22nd percentile) since the start of last season, Tyler Allgeier places among the pass-catching RBs with the highest volume in the NFL.

With a lackluster 1.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (9th percentile) this year, Tyler Allgeier rates among the worst pass-catching RBs in the NFL.

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