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Tyler Allgeier

Tyler Allgeier Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 3

Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons

Tyler Allgeier Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 4th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Falcons since the start of last season (a colossal 59.7 per game on average).

Tyler Allgeier ranks in the 80th percentile when it comes to RBs this year with a remarkable 0.7% of his team's air yards accumulated.

Tyler Allgeier has been one of the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL among running backs, hauling in a fantastic 100.0% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, grading out in the 100th percentile.

Since the start of last season, the weak Panthers pass defense has surrendered a monstrous 88.0% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing running backs: the 6th-highest rate in football.

The Panthers pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency vs. RBs since the start of last season, allowing 7.59 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-most in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's spread suggests a running game script for the Falcons, who are favored by 4.5 points.

The model projects the Falcons as the 4th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 51.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is forecasted by the predictive model to see just 121.5 plays on offense run: the lowest number on the slate this week.

The Falcons have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack efficiency when facing windier weather in this game.

Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to lean on the pass against the Carolina Panthers, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 30.6 per game) since the start of last season.

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