Tyler Allgeier Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Tyler Allgeier

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Allgeier

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 4:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Allgeier Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-115/-115).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Falcons are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
The predictive model expects the Falcons to run the 9th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the NFL.
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has allowed the 3rd-most receiving yards per game in football (40.0) to RBs since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Atlanta Falcons to be the 5th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 52.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Falcons have called the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling just 55.8 plays per game.
When it comes to air yards, Tyler Allgeier grades out in the measly 13th percentile among running backs since the start of last season, averaging just -2.0 per game.
Tyler Allgeier's ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 93.7% to 82.6%.
Tyler Allgeier's pass-game efficiency has tailed off this year, averaging a measly 5.58 yards-per-target compared to a 7.83 figure last year.

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