My Account Log Out

reorder

Tyler Allgeier

Tyler Allgeier Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 18

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons

Tyler Allgeier Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Falcons are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Atlanta Falcons are expected by the projection model to call 70.0 offensive plays in this game: the highest number among all teams this week.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

When it comes to pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Atlanta Falcons ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL this year.

Tyler Allgeier's ability to grind out extra yardage has gotten better this season, notching 11.47 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to just 0.00 mark last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Falcons to pass on 54.6% of their opportunities: the 9th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.

Tyler Allgeier has been used less as a potential target this year (17.4% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (39.1%).

Tyler Allgeier's possession skills have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 93.7% to 75.4%.

Tyler Allgeier's 6.4 adjusted yards per target this season illustrates a remarkable drop-off in his receiving prowess over last season's 7.8 figure.

The Saints defense has surrendered the 2nd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 24.0) vs. running backs this year.

More Tyler Allgeier Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™