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Tyler Allgeier

Tyler Allgeier Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Atlanta Falcons vs Indianapolis Colts

Tyler Allgeier Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +118 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the most plays run on the slate this week at 138.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.

The Atlanta offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all air attack statistics across the board.

Tyler Allgeier's 7.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year shows a meaningful growth in his efficiency in picking up extra yardage over last year's 0.0% rate.

This year, the shaky Colts defense has given up a whopping 42.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing running backs: the 5th-most in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Falcons to pass on 51.5% of their chances: the 4th-lowest clip on the slate this week.

Opposing QBs have averaged 32.7 pass attempts per game versus the Colts defense this year: 6th-fewest in football.

Tyler Allgeier has run fewer routes this season (18.5% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last season (39.1%).

Tyler Allgeier ranks as one of the bottom pass-game RBs this year, averaging a mere 5.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 22nd percentile when it comes to running backs.

Tyler Allgeier's possession skills have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 93.7% to 73.1%.

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