Tyler Allgeier Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Tyler Allgeier

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Allgeier

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Allgeier Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by the projection model to have 137.0 total plays called: the highest number out of all the games this week.
The Falcons have run the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a massive 61.9 plays per game.
The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.
Tyler Allgeier's 6.83 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year marks a meaningful improvement in his effectiveness in picking up extra yardage over last year's 0.0% figure.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Falcons to pass on 55.1% of their chances: the 11th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Tyler Allgeier's 21.0% Route Participation Rate this year shows a material reduction in his pass game utilization over last year's 39.1% rate.
Tyler Allgeier's 71.8% Adjusted Completion Rate this season signifies a significant regression in his pass-catching ability over last season's 93.7% rate.
Tyler Allgeier's 4.1 adjusted yards per target this year represents a remarkable reduction in his pass-catching skills over last year's 7.8 mark.
The Saints defense has surrendered the 4th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 24.0) vs. RBs this year.

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