Tyler Allgeier Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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NFL · Player Props

Tyler Allgeier

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Allgeier Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-118/-113).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Falcons are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
Tyler Allgeier has been among the best possession receivers in the NFL among running backs, hauling in an impressive 100.0% of balls thrown his way this year, ranking in the 100th percentile.
Tyler Allgeier has been among the most effective receivers in the NFL among running backs, averaging an impressive 8.14 yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 88th percentile.
The Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Atlanta Falcons have utilized some form of misdirection on 53.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (7th-most in the league), which can make an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 45.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Falcons to run the 2nd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 3rd-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 52.8 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game versus the Washington Commanders defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.
Tyler Allgeier has posted a meager -2.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 14th percentile among RBs.