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Tyler Allgeier

Tyler Allgeier Carries
Player Prop Week 3

Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons

Tyler Allgeier Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-107/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -102 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game's spread suggests a running game script for the Falcons, who are favored by 4.5 points.

The predictive model expects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 4th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 48.8% run rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

The 4th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Falcons since the start of last season (a colossal 59.7 per game on average).

The Falcons have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack efficiency when facing windier weather in this game.

Among all running backs, Tyler Allgeier grades out in the 76th percentile for carries this year, making up 37.1% of the workload in his team's ground game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is forecasted by the predictive model to see just 121.5 plays on offense run: the lowest number on the slate this week.

When it comes to the defensive ends' role in defending against the run, Carolina's group of DEs has been excellent since the start of last season, grading out as the 4th-best in football.

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