Tyler Allgeier Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Tyler Allgeier

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Allgeier

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Carries

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 4:06 PM EST

Analysis

Tyler Allgeier Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-118/-109).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ -108 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Falcons as the 5th-most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 47.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Falcons to run the 9th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Tyler Allgeier has earned 41.9% of his offense's carries this year, ranking him in the 79th percentile among running backs.
The Atlanta Falcons O-line grades out as the 2nd-best in the NFL since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.

Favors Under

The Falcons are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
The Falcons have called the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling just 55.8 plays per game.

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