Tyler Allgeier Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Tyler Allgeier

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Allgeier

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Carries

Atlanta Falcons vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 2, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Allgeier Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Falcons are a 6.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 55.7% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Falcons to run the 5th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Allgeier to total 17.3 rush attempts in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 90th percentile among RBs.
Tyler Allgeier has garnered 38.9% of his team's rush attempts this year, placing him in the 76th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

The Atlanta Falcons have called the 5th-least plays in the league this year, averaging just 54.4 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Arizona Cardinals safeties project as the 3rd-best group of safeties in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.
The Atlanta Falcons have gone up against a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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