Tyjae Spears Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Tyjae Spears

NFL · Player Props

Tyjae Spears

RB · Tennessee Titans

Rushing Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tennessee Titans · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 2, 2023 11:26 PM EST

Analysis

Tyjae Spears Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-120/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Titans as the 3rd-most run-focused team among all teams this week with a 49.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Tyjae Spears's rushing effectiveness (5.33 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (91st percentile among RBs).
Tyjae Spears ranks as one of the leading RBs in the league at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging a fantastic 4.24 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 98th percentile.
Opposing offenses have run for the 6th-most adjusted yards in football (136 per game) against the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year.
When it comes to the defensive ends' role in run defense, Pittsburgh's collection of DEs has been awful this year, grading out as the 8th-worst in the league. in the league.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Tennessee Titans offensive approach to skew 1.1% more towards the passing game than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Tim Kelly now calling the plays.
A passing game script is implied by the Titans being a -3-point underdog in this game.
At the present time, the 5th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Titans.

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