Tyjae Spears Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Tyjae Spears

NFL · Player Props

Tyjae Spears

RB · Tennessee Titans

Rushing Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyjae Spears Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Titans as the 4th-most run-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 42.5% run rate.
Tyjae Spears's ground effectiveness (5.21 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in football this year (87th percentile when it comes to running backs).

Favors Under

The Tennessee Titans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 4.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
A throwing game script is implied by the Titans being a -5-point underdog in this week's contest.
The predictive model expects the Titans to run the 4th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 6th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 53.6 plays per game.
The Baltimore Ravens defense owns the 7th-best efficiency against opposing ground games this year, surrendering just 3.67 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).

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