Tyjae Spears Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Tyjae Spears

NFL · Player Props

Tyjae Spears

RB · Tennessee Titans

Rushing Yards

Cleveland Browns vs Tennessee Titans · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 4:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyjae Spears Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 22.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 20.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 9th-most run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 44.7% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
The Cleveland Browns defense has produced the 7th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, yielding 4.96 yards-per-carry.

Favors Under

The Tennessee Titans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Titans are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Titans to call the least total plays on the slate this week with 61.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 4th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a mere 54.6 plays per game.
The Cleveland Browns defensive ends grade out as the 3rd-best collection of DEs in the league since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

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