Tyjae Spears Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Tyjae Spears

NFL · Player Props

Tyjae Spears

RB · Tennessee Titans

Rushing Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Tennessee Titans · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 12, 2023 12:26 AM EST

Analysis

Tyjae Spears Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -123 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Tyjae Spears's ground effectiveness (4.67 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (84th percentile when it comes to RBs).
Tyjae Spears has been one of the best running backs in the NFL at generating extra running yardage, averaging an exceptional 3.42 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 89th percentile.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Titans offensive strategy to lean 2.5% more towards the passing game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Tim Kelly now calling the plays.
The Titans are a heavy 13.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
The model projects the Tennessee Titans to be the least run-focused team among all teams this week with a 41.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Titans to call the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the fewest plays in football this year, totaling a mere 53.9 plays per game.

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