Tyjae Spears Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Tyjae Spears

NFL · Player Props

Tyjae Spears

RB · Tennessee Titans

Rushing Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Carolina Panthers · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyjae Spears Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-119/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 24.5 @ -119.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A running game script is indicated by the Titans being a 3.5-point favorite in this game.
The leading projections forecast the Titans as the most run-focused offense among all teams this week with a 49.8% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Tyjae Spears's running efficiency (4.81 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (84th percentile among RBs).
Tyjae Spears profiles as one of the best RBs in the NFL at picking up extra running yardage, averaging a fantastic 3.77 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 93rd percentile.
Opposing squads have rushed for the 2nd-most adjusted yards in the NFL (141 per game) versus the Carolina Panthers defense this year.

Favors Under

The Titans feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.1% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The leading projections forecast this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The fewest plays in football have been called by the Tennessee Titans this year (a mere 52.7 per game on average).

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