Tyjae Spears Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

NFL · Player Props

Tyjae Spears

RB · Tennessee Titans

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tennessee Titans · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 3, 2023 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyjae Spears Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-118/-109).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Tennessee Titans offensive approach to skew 1.1% more towards the passing game than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Tim Kelly now calling the plays.
A passing game script is implied by the Titans being a -3-point underdog in this game.
Our trusted projections expect Tyjae Spears to notch 3.7 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 83rd percentile among running backs.
Tyjae Spears has accumulated a colossal 3.0 air yards per game this year: 91st percentile among running backs. (This may not seem like very many, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Tyjae Spears's 20.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive usage) ranks among the league leaders: 95th percentile for running backs.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Titans to pass on 50.8% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
At the present time, the 5th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Titans.
With a feeble 75.9% Adjusted Completion Rate (24th percentile) this year, Tyjae Spears has been as one of the most hard-handed receivers in the league when it comes to RBs.
Tyjae Spears profiles as one of the least effective pass-catchers in football among RBs, averaging a mere 4.23 adjusted yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 21st percentile.
With a lackluster 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (2nd percentile) this year, Tyjae Spears ranks among the leading pass-catching running backs in the league in the open field.