Tyjae Spears Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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NFL · Player Props

Tyjae Spears

RB · Tennessee Titans

Receiving Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 8:02 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyjae Spears Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Titans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 1.9% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
In this contest, Tyjae Spears is projected by the predictive model to find himself in the 78th percentile among running backs with 3.5 targets.
With an elite 13.0% Target% (93rd percentile) this year, Tyjae Spears rates as one of the pass-game running backs with the biggest workloads in the league.
Tyjae Spears has compiled a massive 4.0 air yards per game this year: 94th percentile when it comes to running backs. (That may not seem like very many, but most RBs have negative air yards due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage).

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Titans to be the 3rd-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 52.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The model projects the Titans to call the 3rd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 60.9 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 3rd-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Titans this year (just 52.0 per game on average).
The Titans offensive line grades out as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative influence on all air attack metrics across the board.
With a poor 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (3rd percentile) this year, Tyjae Spears rates as one of the leading RB receiving threats in football in space.