Tyjae Spears Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

NFL · Player Props

Tyjae Spears

RB · Tennessee Titans

Receiving Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 4:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyjae Spears Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-131/-104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -131.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Tennessee Titans will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 3.4% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 8th-most in the league.
In this game, Tyjae Spears is forecasted by the model to rank in the 85th percentile among RBs with 3.8 targets.
With a high 13.6% Target Share (93rd percentile) this year, Tyjae Spears places as one of the pass-catching running backs with the highest volume in the league.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Tennessee Titans to be the 6th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 55.0% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Titans offense to be the 3rd-worst paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 29.90 seconds per snap.
The Tennessee Titans offensive line grades out as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
Tyjae Spears has been one of the worst possession receivers in football among running backs, hauling in a measly 72.1% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 16th percentile.
Tyjae Spears has been among the least effective pass-catchers in football when it comes to RBs, averaging a lowly 1.99 adjusted yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 2nd percentile.