Tyjae Spears Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Tyjae Spears

RB · Tennessee Titans

Receiving Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyjae Spears Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-105/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Tennessee Titans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 3.0% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being predicted in this game) usually prompt increased passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased air volume, and reduced run volume.
The leading projections forecast Tyjae Spears to notch 3.5 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 80th percentile when it comes to running backs.
Tyjae Spears grades out in the 98th percentile when it comes to running backs this year with a monstrous 4.6% of his offense's air yards accumulated.
The Cincinnati Bengals safeties project as the 2nd-worst collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The model projects the Tennessee Titans as the 10th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 56.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect the Titans to call the fewest total plays among all teams this week with 59.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Titans have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 54.0 plays per game.
The Titans O-line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.
Tyjae Spears has been one of the least sure-handed receivers in football among RBs, hauling in a mere 72.0% of balls thrown his way this year, grading out in the 22nd percentile.