Tyjae Spears Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

NFL · Player Props

Tyjae Spears

RB · Tennessee Titans

Receiving Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyjae Spears Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-112/-117).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects Tyjae Spears to accrue 4.5 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 84th percentile among RBs.
When talking about air yards, Tyjae Spears grades out in the towering 78th percentile among RBs this year, averaging a staggering 1.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more notable than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).
Tyjae Spears slots into the 96th percentile when it comes to RB WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive usage) with an astounding 22.1 figure this year.
Tyjae Spears profiles as one of the top RB receiving threats this year, averaging an outstanding 20.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 82nd percentile.
This year, the weak Texans pass defense has given up a massive 85.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the 6th-highest rate in the league.

Favors Under

With a 3-point advantage, the Titans are favored in this game, suggesting more of a reliance on rushing than their standard approach.
The leading projections forecast the Tennessee Titans to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 51.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect the Titans to call the 10th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 64.3 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have called the 4th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a measly 54.5 plays per game.
In regards to pass protection (and the significance it has on all passing game statistics), the O-line of the Tennessee Titans ranks as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year.