Tyjae Spears Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Tyjae Spears

NFL · Player Props

Tyjae Spears

RB · Tennessee Titans

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Tennessee Titans · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 12, 2023 12:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyjae Spears Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Titans offensive strategy to lean 2.5% more towards the passing game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Tim Kelly now calling the plays.
The Titans are a heavy 13.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
In this contest, Tyjae Spears is predicted by the model to rank in the 84th percentile when it comes to RBs with 4.3 targets.
With an exceptional 13.6% Target% (93rd percentile) this year, Tyjae Spears ranks among the RB receiving threats with the most usage in football.
This year, the porous Miami Dolphins defense has given up the 6th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing RBs: a whopping 6.45 yards.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Tennessee Titans to be the least pass-heavy offense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 56.1% pass rate.
The leading projections forecast the Titans to call the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the fewest plays in football this year, totaling a mere 53.9 plays per game.
The Tennessee O-line ranks as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful influence on all passing offense statistics across the board.
With a lackluster 3.9 adjusted yards per target (5th percentile) this year, Tyjae Spears places among the worst pass-game RBs in the league.

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