Tyjae Spears Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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NFL · Player Props

Tyjae Spears

RB · Tennessee Titans

Receiving Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Tyjae Spears Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-109/-118).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Titans offensive scheme to skew 2.5% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Tim Kelly now calling the plays.
The Titans are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been something of pass funnel this year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the most passes in the league (41.6 per game) this year.
In this game, Tyjae Spears is forecasted by the model to secure a spot in the 87th percentile among running backs with 4.1 targets.
Tyjae Spears has put up a massive 1.0 air yards per game this year: 82nd percentile when it comes to RBs. (This might not seem like very many, but most RBs have negative air yards considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage).

Favors Under

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Titans to pass on 55.7% of their downs: the 8th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
The projections expect the Titans to run the 6th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Titans have run the 5th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 54.9 plays per game.
The Tennessee O-line ranks as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
With a feeble 4.4 adjusted yards per target (20th percentile) this year, Tyjae Spears stands as one of the worst pass-catching RBs in football.