Tyjae Spears Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

NFL · Player Props

Tyjae Spears

RB · Tennessee Titans

Receiving Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Tennessee Titans · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyjae Spears Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-115/-113).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Titans offensive strategy to skew 1.9% more towards the passing attack than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Tim Kelly now calling the plays.
Opposing offenses have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game against the Buccaneers defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
Our trusted projections expect Tyjae Spears to garner 4.2 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 85th percentile when it comes to RBs.
With an elite 13.9% Target% (95th percentile) this year, Tyjae Spears stands as one of the pass-catching running backs with the highest volume in football.
Tyjae Spears has put up a monstrous 2.0 air yards per game this year: 87th percentile when it comes to RBs. (This may not seem like a lot, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage).

Favors Under

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Titans to pass on 53.4% of their plays: the 2nd-lowest clip on the slate this week.
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Titans are expected by the model to run only 62.8 offensive plays in this contest: the 9th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 6th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a measly 54.5 plays per game.
When talking about pass-blocking (and the influence it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Titans grades out as the 9th-worst in the league this year.
With a weak 75.8% Adjusted Catch% (24th percentile) this year, Tyjae Spears has been as one of the worst possession receivers in football when it comes to RBs.