Ty Montgomery Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Ty Montgomery

NFL · Player Props

Ty Montgomery

WR · New England Patriots

Rushing Yards

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 7:38 PM UTC

Analysis

Ty Montgomery Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 52.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots have been the 8th-most run-oriented team in the league (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 39.7% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Ty Montgomery to total 1.1 carries in this game, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile among WRs and TEs.
The New England Patriots O-line grades out as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.
The New England Patriots have used some form of misdirection on 52.8% of their play-calls since the start of last season (8th-most in the league), which masks an offenses true intentions and may make them more effective.

Favors Under

The Patriots are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 58.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have called the 9th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a mere 60.7 plays per game.
The Miami Dolphins defensive ends grade out as the 5th-best unit in the league since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.
The New England Patriots have been faced with a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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