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Ty Johnson

Ty Johnson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 11

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs

Ty Johnson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Bills to be the 9th-most pass-centric offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 62.2% pass rate.

Ty Johnson has gone out for more passes this season (29.7% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (10.5%).

In regards to air yards, Ty Johnson grades out in the towering 99th percentile among RBs this year, totaling a massive 8.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more impressive than it sounds since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).

With an excellent 10.9 adjusted yards per target (96th percentile) this year, Ty Johnson has been among the best pass-catching RBs in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Buffalo Bills are predicted by the projections to run only 62.1 offensive plays in this game: the fewest on the slate this week.

The 5th-lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Buffalo Bills this year (just 53.9 per game on average).

With a poor 76.0% Adjusted Completion% (22nd percentile) this year, Ty Johnson rates as one of the most unreliable receivers in the league among running backs.

With a subpar 4.62 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (18th percentile) this year, Ty Johnson ranks among the best pass-catching RBs in the NFL in space.

The Kansas City Chiefs defense has given up the 3rd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 25.0) vs. RBs this year.

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