Tucker Kraft Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Tucker Kraft

NFL · Player Props

Tucker Kraft

TE · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Tucker Kraft Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+114/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing QBs have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 7th-most in the league.
In this contest, Tucker Kraft is anticipated by the model to slot into the 77th percentile among tight ends with 4.5 targets.
Our trusted projections expect Tucker Kraft to be a more integral piece of his team's air attack this week (13.8% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (4.1% in games he has played).
Tucker Kraft profiles as one of the most reliable receivers in football among TEs, catching a remarkable 84.7% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 82nd percentile.

Favors Under

The Packers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Packers have run the 10th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 56.4 plays per game.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has conceded the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (68.4%) to tight ends this year (68.4%).
When it comes to safeties in defending receivers, Tampa Bay's group of safeties has been phenomenal this year, ranking as the 6th-best in the NFL.

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