Tucker Kraft Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Tucker Kraft

NFL · Player Props

Tucker Kraft

TE · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 3:51 AM EST

Analysis

Tucker Kraft Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A passing game script is indicated by the Packers being a -5.5-point underdog in this game.
The predictive model expects the Green Bay Packers as the 6th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.6% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects Tucker Kraft to accrue 4.2 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 81st percentile among TEs.
The leading projections forecast Tucker Kraft to be a much bigger part of his offense's pass game in this game (12.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (2.3% in games he has played).
Tucker Kraft rates as one of the best possession receivers in the league among TEs, hauling in an outstanding 89.4% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 88th percentile.

Favors Under

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Packers are predicted by the predictive model to call only 64.0 total plays in this contest: the 7th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The 8th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Packers this year (a lowly 55.5 per game on average).
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 4th-fewest in the league.

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