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Tucker Kraft

Tucker Kraft Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 9

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions

Tucker Kraft Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-129/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 34.5 @ -129 before it was bet down to 29.5 @ +100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Packers to be the 8th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 62.4% pass rate.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is expected by the model to have 133.5 offensive plays run: the 3rd-highest number among all games this week.

The Detroit Lions defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, leading opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (39.6 per game) this year.

Tucker Kraft has run fewer routes this season (80.4% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (44.0%).

Our trusted projections expect Tucker Kraft to total 5.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 82nd percentile among tight ends.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

The Detroit Lions defense has allowed the 2nd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 33.0) versus TEs this year.

The Lions pass defense has shown good efficiency versus tight ends this year, surrendering 5.49 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-fewest in football.

As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Detroit's collection of safeties has been exceptional this year, grading out as the best in the league.

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