Tucker Kraft Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Tucker Kraft

NFL · Player Props

Tucker Kraft

TE · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Tucker Kraft Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 35.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 33.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing QBs have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 7th-most in the league.
In this contest, Tucker Kraft is anticipated by the model to slot into the 77th percentile among tight ends with 4.5 targets.
Our trusted projections expect Tucker Kraft to be a more integral piece of his team's air attack this week (13.8% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (4.1% in games he has played).
Tucker Kraft profiles as one of the most reliable receivers in football among TEs, catching a remarkable 84.7% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 82nd percentile.
With an outstanding 9.8 adjusted yards per target (88th percentile) this year, Tucker Kraft has been among the best pass-catching tight ends in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Packers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Packers have run the 10th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 56.4 plays per game.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has conceded the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (68.4%) to tight ends this year (68.4%).
This year, the imposing Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has conceded the 8th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing tight ends: a meager 6.8 yards.

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