Tucker Kraft Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Tucker Kraft

NFL · Player Props

Tucker Kraft

TE · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 23, 2023 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Tucker Kraft Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 27.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 26.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Packers being a huge -8.5-point underdog in this game.
The projections expect the Packers as the 2nd-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 64.3% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.
The projections expect Tucker Kraft to total 5.1 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 84th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
While Tucker Kraft has received 1.9% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a more important option in Green Bay's offense this week at 14.0%.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Packers to call the 2nd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.9 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 9th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Packers this year (a lowly 56.1 per game on average).
Tucker Kraft has posted a meager 2.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 22nd percentile among tight ends.
The Detroit Lions pass defense has allowed the 10th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (69.9%) vs. TEs this year (69.9%).

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