Tua Tagovailoa TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Tua Tagovailoa

NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

TD Passes

Cleveland Browns vs Miami Dolphins · Week 17, 2024

Updated Dec 28, 2024 7:56 PM EST

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+115/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is projected by the projections to have 132.9 plays on offense run: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 60.1 plays per game.
As it relates to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Cleveland's CB corps has been atrocious this year, ranking as the 4th-worst in football.

Favors Under

This game's line implies a running game script for the Dolphins, who are favored by 6.5 points.
Our trusted projections expect the Dolphins to be the 8th-most pass-focused team in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 62.9% pass rate.
The weatherman calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.4 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 6th-fewest in the league.
This year, the formidable Cleveland Browns defense has surrendered a puny 66.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 3rd-lowest rate in football.

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