Tua Tagovailoa TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Tua Tagovailoa

NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

TD Passes

Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 12:51 AM EST

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-148/+116).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +116 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +116.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Miami Dolphins to pass on 63.7% of their opportunities: the 4th-highest clip on the slate this week.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
In this contest, Tua Tagovailoa is projected by the projection model to total the 3rd-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 39.2.
Tua Tagovailoa's passing precision has improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 64.0% to 70.7%.
With a terrific ratio of 2.25 per game (100th percentile), Tua Tagovailoa rates as one of the leading touchdown passers in the league this year.

Favors Under

Right now, the 4th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the model is the Miami Dolphins.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 4th-fewest in football.
This year, the stout Kansas City Chiefs defense has allowed a mere 66.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 6th-smallest rate in the NFL.
The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers profile as the 4th-best unit in football this year with their pass rush.

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