Tua Tagovailoa TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Tua Tagovailoa

NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

TD Passes

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 10:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-140/+130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +140 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the 7th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (63.7% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Miami Dolphins.
The projections expect Tua Tagovailoa to throw 36.3 passes this week, on average: the 10th-most among all QBs.
Tua Tagovailoa's 71.4% Adjusted Completion% this season signifies a significant gain in his throwing accuracy over last season's 64.0% figure.
Tua Tagovailoa has been among the best TD passers in the NFL this year, averaging a fantastic 2.14 per game while checking in at the 97th percentile.
This year, the weak Patriots defense has been torched for a massive 74.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 9th-highest rate in football.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are an enormous 8.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
At the moment, the 9th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Miami Dolphins.
The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.

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