Tua Tagovailoa TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Tua Tagovailoa

NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

TD Passes

Miami Dolphins vs New York Giants · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-240/+180).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Dolphins to be the 9th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.2% pass rate.
Tua Tagovailoa's 71.8% Adjusted Completion% this year reflects a a significant gain in his passing accuracy over last year's 64.0% mark.
Tua Tagovailoa has been among the top touchdown throwers in the NFL this year, averaging an outstanding 2.25 per game while ranking in the 97th percentile.
The Giants cornerbacks grade out as the 3rd-worst group of CBs in football this year in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a giant 13-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Dolphins offense to be the 6th-worst paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.12 seconds per snap.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the New York Giants, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 29.2 per game) this year.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 6th-lowest level in the NFL versus the New York Giants defense since the start of last season (67.9% Adjusted Completion%).
This year, the stout Giants defense has yielded a meager 1.00 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing teams: the 8th-best rate in the league.

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