Tua Tagovailoa TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Tua Tagovailoa

NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

TD Passes

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 24, 2023 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-149/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -149.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Dolphins to be the 6th-most pass-focused team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 64.8% pass rate.
Tua Tagovailoa's throwing precision has improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 64.0% to 69.9%.
Tua Tagovailoa has been one of the leading touchdown passers in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 2.10 per game while checking in at the 97th percentile.

Favors Under

This week's line indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Dolphins, who are a massive favorite by 9.5 points.
Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Dolphins are expected by the predictive model to run just 64.0 plays on offense in this game: the 10th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 54.2 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the New York Jets, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 33.2 per game) this year.
The New York Jets defense has yielded the 10th-fewest passing touchdowns in football: 1.20 per game this year.

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