Tua Tagovailoa TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Tua Tagovailoa

NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

TD Passes

Detroit Lions vs Miami Dolphins · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 6:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-190/+150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -165 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -190.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 7th-most pass-centric team in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 60.7% red zone pass rate.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Tua Tagovailoa to attempt 37.9 passes in this game, on average: the 8th-most of all quarterbacks.
Tua Tagovailoa has been among the most on-target quarterbacks in the league this year with a stellar 68.2% Completion%, checking in at the 89th percentile.
Tua Tagovailoa has been among the top TD passers in football this year, averaging a stellar 1.80 per game while grading out in the 86th percentile.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Miami Dolphins O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.
The Miami Dolphins O-line has given their quarterback a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all air attack stats across the board.
The Miami Dolphins have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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