Tua Tagovailoa TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Tua Tagovailoa

NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

TD Passes

Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins · Week 4, 2022

Updated Sep 30, 2022 2:05 AM EST

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 4-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 10th-most pass-heavy offense in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 59.7% red zone pass rate.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in football.
Tua Tagovailoa's throwing precision has been refined this season, with his Completion% rising from 67.4% to 72.2%.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 9th-highest level in the NFL versus the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season (71.2%).

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Cincinnati Bengals defense has allowed the 9th-least passing TDs in football: 1.40 per game since the start of last season.
The Cincinnati Bengals cornerbacks grade out as the 3rd-best unit in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

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