Tua Tagovailoa TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

TD Passes

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 26, 2022 2:55 AM UTC

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-170/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -170.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 62.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 63.9 plays per game.
Tua Tagovailoa's passing accuracy has improved this year, with his Completion% increasing from 67.4% to 72.1%.
The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box against opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 119.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.0 pass attempts per game versus the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the league.
The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest clip in the NFL versus the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season (64.4%).