Tua Tagovailoa TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Tua Tagovailoa

NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

TD Passes

Miami Dolphins vs Houston Texans · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+164/-233).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -189 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -233.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 9th-most pass-centric offense in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 60.1% red zone pass rate.
Tua Tagovailoa's throwing accuracy has gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% jumping from 67.4% to 70.7%.
Tua Tagovailoa has been among the top TD throwers in the league this year, averaging a stellar 2.25 per game while checking in at the 97th percentile.
The Houston Texans safeties profile as the worst unit in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Miami Dolphins have used play action on 33.9% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (2nd-most in the NFL), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 10th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 56.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 126.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 55.6 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense this year: 5th-least in the league.

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