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Tua Tagovailoa

Tua Tagovailoa TD Passes
Player Prop Week 12

Miami Dolphins vs Houston Texans

 
 
 
Tua Tagovailoa TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+164/-233).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -189 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -233.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 9th-most pass-centric offense in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 60.1% red zone pass rate.
  • Tua Tagovailoa's throwing accuracy has gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% jumping from 67.4% to 70.7%.
  • Tua Tagovailoa has been among the top TD throwers in the league this year, averaging a stellar 2.25 per game while checking in at the 97th percentile.
  • The Houston Texans safeties profile as the worst unit in the league this year in covering receivers.
  • The Miami Dolphins have used play action on 33.9% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (2nd-most in the NFL), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 10th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 56.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 126.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Miami Dolphins have run the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 55.6 plays per game.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense this year: 5th-least in the league.

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