Tua Tagovailoa TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Tua Tagovailoa

NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

TD Passes

Miami Dolphins vs Cleveland Browns · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-175/+145).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-most pass-oriented team in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 61.1% red zone pass rate.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Tua Tagovailoa to attempt 37.4 passes this week, on average: the 9th-most of all QBs.
Tua Tagovailoa has been among the most on-target passers in the NFL this year with a stellar 70.3% Completion%, ranking in the 91st percentile.
Tua Tagovailoa has been among the top TD passers in football this year, averaging a terrific 2.14 per game while ranking in the 95th percentile.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the 6th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 8th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 55.9 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in football.
The Miami Dolphins O-line grades out as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.

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