Tua Tagovailoa Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Tua Tagovailoa

NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

Rushing Yards

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 10:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+125/-155).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are an enormous 8.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
In regards to blocking for ball-carriers (and the importance it has on all run game metrics), the O-line of the Dolphins grades out as the 7th-best in football last year.

Favors Under

Right now, the 7th-least run-centric offense in the NFL (36.3% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Dolphins.
At the moment, the 9th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Miami Dolphins.
In registering a meager 1.6 carries per game this year, Tua Tagovailoa stands among the bottom QBs in the league (17th percentile) as it relates to running workload.
With a lousy rate of 3.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (6th percentile), Tua Tagovailoa stands as one of the worst rushing QBs in football this year.
Tua Tagovailoa's 2.08 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this year conveys a material drop-off in his running ability over last year's 4.92 rate.

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