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Tua Tagovailoa

Tua Tagovailoa Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 15

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets

 
 
 
Tua Tagovailoa Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -110.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • With a 7-point advantage, the Dolphins are a massive favorite in this week's game, indicating much more of a reliance on running than their normal approach.
  • Windy weather conditions (like the 23-mph being projected in this game) generally mean worse passing efficiency, lower air volume, and increased run volume.
  • While Tua Tagovailoa has received 7.3% of his offense's carries in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a more integral piece of Miami's running game in this game at 12.9%.
  • The Miami O-line grades out as the 7th-best in the league last year at blocking for the run game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Right now, the 10th-least run-focused offense in the NFL (36.5% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Miami Dolphins.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to see only 127.5 offensive plays called: the 4th-fewest on the slate this week.
  • The Dolphins have called the 6th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 55.6 plays per game.
  • Tua Tagovailoa has grinded out a mere 5.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the smallest figures in the NFL when it comes to QBs (16th percentile).
  • Tua Tagovailoa's 2.91 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this season conveys a substantial drop-off in his rushing prowess over last season's 4.92 mark.

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