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Tua Tagovailoa

Tua Tagovailoa Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 9

Chicago Bears vs Miami Dolphins

Tua Tagovailoa Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-165/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -165.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.

The weather report calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

THE BLITZ projects Tua Tagovailoa to be a much bigger part of his team's run game this week (11.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (1.7% in games he has played).

Opposing offenses have run for the 2nd-most yards in the NFL (158 per game) versus the Chicago Bears defense this year.

The Chicago Bears defensive ends grade out as the worst collection of DEs in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 8th-least run-centric offense in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 35.6% run rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the least total plays among all teams this week with 61.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Tua Tagovailoa has been among the worst quarterbacks in football at generating extra ground yardage, averaging a mere 0.46 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 10th percentile.

The Miami Dolphins have gone for it on 4th down a measly 15.6% of the time since the start of last season (6th-least in football), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

More Tua Tagovailoa Player Props

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