Tua Tagovailoa Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Tua Tagovailoa

NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

Rushing Yards

Detroit Lions vs Miami Dolphins · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-113/-121).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -121.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Tua Tagovailoa to be a much bigger part of his offense's rushing attack this week (9.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (2.0% in games he has played).
Opposing offenses have rushed for the most yards in football (168 per game) vs. the Detroit Lions defense this year.
The Detroit Lions safeties rank as the 28th-worst collection of safeties in football this year in regard to run defense.
The Miami Dolphins have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 9th-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 38.0% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Tua Tagovailoa to accumulate 2.4 carries this week, on average: the 10th-least of all quarterbacks.
Tua Tagovailoa has rushed for substantially fewer yards per game (3.0) this season than he did last season (10.0).
Tua Tagovailoa's ground effectiveness (4.28 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the NFL since the start of last season (21st percentile among QBs).

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