Tua Tagovailoa Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

Rushing Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Miami Dolphins · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-105/-125).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects Tua Tagovailoa to be much more involved in his team's running game this week (10.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (3.9% in games he has played).
The Miami Dolphins have faced a stacked the box on a mere 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Miami Dolphins have gone no-huddle on 13.9% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-most in football). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.
The Miami Dolphins have used some form of misdirection on 56.0% of their plays since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL), which masks an offenses true intentions and may make them more effective.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
The Dolphins have been the 6th-least run-oriented offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 29.1% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 58.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Tua Tagovailoa to garner 2.4 rush attempts in this contest, on average: the 2nd-least of all quarterbacks.
The Miami Dolphins O-line grades out as the 2nd-worst in football since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.