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Tua Tagovailoa

Tua Tagovailoa Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 15

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

Tua Tagovailoa Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-109/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 8th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.04 seconds per play.

THE BLITZ projects Tua Tagovailoa to be a more integral piece of his offense's rushing attack this week (9.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (2.0% in games he has played).

Tua Tagovailoa's ground efficiency has been refined this year, totaling 5.23 yards-per-carry vs a mere 4.47 rate last year.

The Buffalo Bills safeties project as the 28th-worst collection of safeties in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.

The Miami Dolphins have faced a stacked the box on just 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.6% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 5th-least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 36.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Tua Tagovailoa to garner 2.2 rush attempts in this game, on average: the 7th-least of all quarterbacks.

Tua Tagovailoa has averaged just 6.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the smallest figures in football among quarterbacks (24th percentile).

More Tua Tagovailoa Player Props

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