Tua Tagovailoa Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

Rushing Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 18, 2022 1:01 AM EST

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-109/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 8th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.04 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Tua Tagovailoa to be a more integral piece of his offense's rushing attack this week (9.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (2.0% in games he has played).
Tua Tagovailoa's ground efficiency has been refined this year, totaling 5.23 yards-per-carry vs a mere 4.47 rate last year.
The Buffalo Bills safeties project as the 28th-worst collection of safeties in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The Miami Dolphins have faced a stacked the box on just 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.6% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 5th-least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 36.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Tua Tagovailoa to garner 2.2 rush attempts in this game, on average: the 7th-least of all quarterbacks.
Tua Tagovailoa has averaged just 6.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the smallest figures in football among quarterbacks (24th percentile).