Tua Tagovailoa Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Tua Tagovailoa

NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 12, 2022 1:01 AM EST

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-105/-125).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Tua Tagovailoa to be much more involved in his team's run game this week (8.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (2.2% in games he has played).
The Miami Dolphins O-line ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL this year at opening holes for runners.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has produced the worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, surrendering 5.71 yards-per-carry.
The Los Angeles Chargers defensive ends rank as the worst unit in football this year when it comes to defending the run.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.6% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 7th-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 37.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 8th-least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 54.7 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Tua Tagovailoa to accrue 2.1 carries in this week's game, on average: the 7th-least of all QBs.

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