Tua Tagovailoa Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

Rushing Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Miami Dolphins · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM EST

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Tua Tagovailoa to be a more important option in his offense's running game this week (9.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (2.3% in games he has played).
The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 10th-best in football this year at opening holes for rushers.
The Miami Dolphins have been faced with a stacked the box on just 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Miami Dolphins have gone no-huddle on 13.9% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.
The Miami Dolphins have utilized some form of misdirection on 56.0% of their play-calls since the start of last season (5th-most in the league), which can confuse the defense and bolster offensive production.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.3% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Dolphins are a big 14-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 5th-least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 34.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the 2nd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 56.1 plays per game.